Severe Weather Outlook
Time
SPC Links
- Day 1 (issued at 1155 PM CDT) -- Scheduled (CDT): 100 am, 800 am, 1130 am, 300 pm, 800 pm
- Day 2 (issued at 1245 AM CDT) -- Scheduled (CDT): 100 am, 1230 pm
- Day 3 (issued at 0205 AM CDT) -- Scheduled (CDT): 230 am
- Days 4-8
The Outlooks
NOTE - (Updated October 11, 2007) - Please note that "TSTM" is not currently used for Day 3. Also please note that there are occasional problems when either (1) the threat lines have short breaks in them or (2) the lines are drawn in an incorrect order.
| Location |
Day 1 |
Day 2 |
Day 3 |
Mon &
Mon Ngt |
Tue &
Tue Ngt |
Tue &
Tue Ngt |
| Norman OK | TSTM
| TORNADO: 0% |
| HAIL: 0% |
| WIND: 0% |
|
TSTM
| NONE
|
| Bethany OK | NONE
| TORNADO: 0% |
| HAIL: 0% |
| WIND: 0% |
|
TSTM
| NONE
|
| SW Knox Co TX | TSTM
| TORNADO: 0% |
| HAIL: 0% |
| WIND: 0% |
|
TSTM
| NONE
|
| NW Harper Co OK | TSTM
| TORNADO: 0% |
| HAIL: 0% |
| WIND: 0% |
|
TSTM
| NONE
|
| NE Kay Co OK | NONE
| TORNADO: 0% |
| HAIL: 0% |
| WIND: 0% |
|
TSTM
| NONE
|
| SE Bryan Co OK | TSTM
| TORNADO: 0% |
| HAIL: 0% |
| WIND: 0% |
|
TSTM
| NONE
|
| Alpena MI | TSTM
| TORNADO: 0% |
| HAIL: 0% |
| WIND: 0% |
|
TSTM
| NONE
|
| Canton IL | NONE
| TORNADO: 0% |
| HAIL: 0% |
| WIND: 0% |
|
TSTM
| NONE
|
Legend
Example
| Day 1 |
Day 2 |
Day 3 |
Risk Category
| Probability of Tornadoes |
| Probability of Hail |
| Probability of Wind |
|
Risk Category
|
Risk Category
|
"Probability" refers to the approximate probability of severe weather within 25 miles of the point.
Risk Categories
| Item | Example | Description |
|---|
| No thunderstorms expected | NONE | The risk of thunderstorms at the given point is very low or zero. |
| Chance of thunderstorms | TSTM | Thunderstorms possible, but organized severe storms are unlikely (not used for Day 3). |
| Slight Risk | SLGT | "Slight Risk" of severe storms at the given point. |
| Moderate Risk | MDT | "Moderate Risk" of severe storms at the given point. |
| High Risk | HIGH | "High Risk" of severe storms at the given point. |
Probabilities
Probabilities that are used for hail and wind: 5%, 15%, 30%, 45%, and 60%.
Tornado probabilities include the above, plus 2% and 10%.
Day 2 probabilities are: 5%, 15%, 30%, 45%, and 60%.
Day 3 probabilities are: 5%, 15%, 30%, and 45%.
No Severe Weather Expected
| Item | Example | Description |
|---|
| <2% tornado risk | TORNADO: 0% | Less than 2% chance of tornado within 25 mi. |
| <5% hail risk | HAIL: 0% | Less than 5% chance of severe hail (¾-inch or larger) within 25 mi. |
| <5% wind risk | WIND: 0% | Less than 5% chance of severe wind (50 kt/58 mph or more) within 25 mi. |
Severe Weather Expected
| Item | Example | Description |
|---|
| ≥2% tornado risk | TORNADO: 5% | 2% chance or greater of tornado within 25 mi. |
| ≥5% hail risk | HAIL: 15% | 5% chance or greater of severe hail within 25 mi. |
| ≥5% wind risk | WIND: 15% | 5% chance or greater of severe wind within 25 mi. |
Significant Severe Weather Expected
| Item | Example | Description |
|---|
| "Significant" tornado risk | TORNADO: 15% | 10% chance or greater of F2 to F5 tornado within 25 mi. |
| "Significant" hail risk | HAIL: 45% | 10% chance or greater of 2-inch diameter (or larger) hail within 25 mi. |
| "Significant" wind risk | WIND: 45% | 10% chance or greater of 65 knot (75 mph) (or stronger) wind within 25 mi. |
Latest update: December 1, 2008
